Financial intelligence from
20 macro analysts.

Hard Assets Are the Crowded Consensus

Gold commands a 15-bull / 2-bear lean across the panel, oil sits at 16/19 bullish, and broad commodities at 13/16. Luke Gromen, Lyn Alden, Russell Napier, and Louis-Vincent Gave frame the move as structural — fiscal dominance, central-bank reserve diversification, and a decade of energy underinvestment. The debate is no longer whether to own hard assets but how much room is left after the run.

The Dollar Is Where the Room Splits

DXY draws the cleanest two-camp split of the week: 9 bears versus 7 bulls. Brent Johnson, Jeff Snider, and Joseph Wang hold the structural-strength view (Milkshake, dollar shortage, yield carry); Luke Gromen, Lyn Alden, David Rosenberg, and Louis-Vincent Gave argue the reserve role is eroding against hard assets. Both camps can be right on different timeframes.

Growth and AI Capex Lean Bearish

US growth carries a 16-bear / 3-bull lean and AI capex a 13-bear / 3-bull lean. Danielle DiMartino Booth and David Rosenberg see a recession masked by lagging data; Mike Green warns the passive-flow "giant mindless robot" is starting to falter. The optimists — Darius Dale, Michael Howell, Raoul Pal — lean on liquidity and fiscal support.

Bonds and the Fed Divide the House

Treasuries lean bearish (11 bear / 6 bull) but conceal a genuine split between the recession-deflation camp (Rosenberg, Snider, Howell) calling for a flight-to-safety rally and the fiscal-dominance camp (Gromen, Gave, Bianco) calling Treasuries "return-free risk." The Fed path leans dovish (10/17) under the new Warsh chairmanship.

Luke Gromen — Fiscal Dominance

Core thesis: US interest expense plus entitlements now exceeds tax receipts, trapping the Fed. The exit is negative real rates that inflate away debt-to-GDP. Strongly bullish gold (re-monetized as tier-one reserve), bullish Bitcoin, and bearish Treasuries ("return-free risk"). Bearish dollar against hard assets, bullish equities in nominal terms.

Louis-Vincent Gave — China Reflation

Argues China has shifted from a deflationary to a reflationary force via supply-chain de-westernization. Sees Chinese equities as the "value play of the decade," drawing a 2009-US parallel. Bullish gold, oil, and EM (India-China-Russia triangle); bearish bonds and the dollar in the "inflationary boom" quadrant of the Gavekal Grid.

David Rosenberg — Overbought, Not Wrong

Long-term bullish precious metals on de-dollarization, but flags gold and silver as "dangerously overbought" near-term. Calls US equities a bubble with a negative equity-risk premium and a setup "mirroring the 1987 crash." Max bullish long-duration Treasuries on the eventual recession; bearish dollar secularly.

Brent Johnson — Dollar Milkshake

The structural counterweight: bullish DXY toward 120+ on a global short-dollar squeeze ($13T+ offshore debt). Simultaneously bullish gold and US equities (capital flees to the deepest market). Bearish emerging markets, which are the Milkshake's primary victims.

Mike Green — Passive Faltering

The passive-flow "giant mindless robot driving stocks is starting to falter." Structurally bullish equities while inflows persist but warns of a convexity event when flows turn. Bullish dollar and Treasuries on demographics; structurally bearish Bitcoin as a non-productive asset.

Danielle DiMartino Booth — Masked Recession

The US is in or near a recession masked by lagging labor data; the Fed over-tightened on duration. Bearish equities and growth, bullish long Treasuries on a flight to safety, bullish gold as a fiscal-dominance hedge. Flags Warsh's debut as tearing up the playbook — skeptical on Bitcoin as a true safe haven.

Erik Townsend — Energy Supply Shock

Highest-conviction call is oil: ESG-driven CapEx starvation sets up a supply shock with $120+ "one geopolitical shock away." Strongly bullish uranium as the only clean source for AI-driven demand. Bullish gold long-term, dollar-bullish short / bearish long, and a crypto skeptic on CBDC-competition grounds.

Russell Napier — Financial Repression

The defining frame: governments have seized credit creation via loan guarantees, engineering 4-6% inflation above capped yields for 15-20 years. Bullish gold, old-economy/CapEx equities, and commodities; strongly bearish bonds ("certificates of confiscation"). Notably skeptical on Bitcoin — expects capital controls.

Luke Gromen: Long gold, Bitcoin; short long-duration Treasuries; bullish equities nominally.

Lyn Alden: Long Bitcoin, gold, energy/uranium; avoid long-duration bonds; selective EM (commodity exporters).

Brent Johnson: Long USD, gold, US equities; short emerging markets; cautiously long Bitcoin.

David Rosenberg: Max long Treasuries; long gold/silver (with near-term caution); short US equities.

Louis-Vincent Gave: Long China/HK equities, EM, gold, oil, commodities; short bonds and the dollar.

Raoul Pal: Long Bitcoin/Solana, exponential-age tech; tactical long Treasuries; underweight gold vs. crypto.

Russell Napier: Long gold, old-economy/CapEx equities, commodities; short long bonds; skeptical on Bitcoin.

Erik Townsend: Long oil, uranium, commodities, gold; short long Treasuries; crypto skeptic.

Mike Green: Long volatility, dollar, Treasuries; structurally cautious equities; bearish Bitcoin and gold.

Michael Howell: Long gold, Bitcoin, equities on the liquidity upswing; cautious on bond term premia.