Intelligence Archives
Past Briefings
Every week we publish a new cross-analyst intelligence report synthesizing 20+ macro analysts into one brief. Browse the full archive below.
MacroSignal Weekly
Gold holds an 18-of-19 bullish consensus even as Jim Bianco becomes a lone, specific dissenter calling it a post-bubble correction. Meanwhile the AI capex bear case broadens to 16 of 20 analysts following Nvidia's $1 trillion drawdown, and the Fed's hawkish debut under Kevin Warsh collides with a 50-year low in labor force participation.
MacroSignal Weekly
Growth data forced a hawkish repricing this week as 5% GDP tracking and a hot PMI print pushed October Fed-hike odds from 50% to 75%, while a weak 5-year Treasury auction exposed softer foreign demand. Gold remains the panel's most unanimous call (18/20 bullish) even as the Dollar and Treasuries saw a wave of two-way reversals. Beneath the AI capex boom, private-credit redemption stress is surfacing for the first time.
MacroSignal Weekly
Gold's fiscal-math bull case ($7,800 target, 18/20 bullish) holds firm even as Raoul Pal breaks ranks with a sharp reversal to very-bearish. Six analysts flipped sides on the dollar this week, AI capex skepticism deepened to 16/19 bearish, and the freshest hard data came from record diesel crack spreads rather than headline CPI.
MacroSignal Weekly
A Fed-independence shock (the Warsh nomination) triggered nearly 40 tracked position reversals across the dollar, bonds, equities and growth calls this week — even as the room's 18-of-20 bullish lean on gold held steady. Jeff Snider flags emerging private-credit stress (Blue Owl's '100 to zero' write-down) and a $54B Chinese bank recapitalization, while Jim Bianco reframes gold as a 'sovereignty premium' trade and Raoul Pal reverses hard on both gold and Bitcoin.
MacroSignal Weekly
Gold conviction reaches near-unanimity (19/20 bullish) even as the US Dollar debate scrambles, with seven analysts reversing their currency call in a single week. Jeff Snider flags a deepening private-credit contraction (82% BDC fundraising collapse, 1,053bps CCC spreads) while Jim Bianco argues 5% yields aren't yet a problem for resilient equities.
MacroSignal Weekly
Gold consensus tightened to a near-unanimous 19 of 20 bullish as the reasoning broadened from a rates trade to a China-devaluation and fiscal-dominance story. Everywhere else the debate reopened — the dollar split into structural-bid bulls and erosion bears, and the AI capex question hardened into a supercycle-versus-bubble standoff with Dale assigning 50% odds to a -50% drawdown.
MacroSignal Weekly
An unusually reversal-heavy week: the room flipped bullish on the US dollar (10-vs-9 split), bearish on the AI buildout (15/19), and broadly bearish on Treasuries as the 30-year hit a 5.20% 19-year high. Gold remains the near-unanimous anchor at 19/20, while Snider flags a record 6.0% private credit default rate spilling into public markets.
MacroSignal Weekly
Gold conviction hits a near-unanimous 19/20 peak as a wave of six Fed-pivot reversals reshapes the room. But the dollar debate splits wide open — Dale, Kofinas and Hendry reverse bearish while Townsend flips bullish — and fresh AI-capex skepticism from Raoul Pal puts the Mag-7 premium under scrutiny.
MacroSignal Weekly
Gold consensus hit its strongest reading of the year (19/20 bullish) while the room split wide open on the dollar, bonds, equities and the Fed. Several analysts reversed course in opposite directions — Gromen and Pal now see cuts coming while Snider and Dale turned bearish on the Fed path. The week's signal is healthy debate, not agreement.
MacroSignal Weekly
Gold hardens toward unanimity (19/20 bullish) as the analyst room splits sharply on the dollar, bonds and equities. The dominant shift this week: the Fed-policy read flipped hawkish even as US growth pessimism deepened, while a new bearish signal crystallized on AI capex sustainability.
MacroSignal Weekly
Twenty macro analysts converge on gold, oil, and commodities as the crowded consensus while splitting almost evenly on the dollar, bonds, and the Fed's path. The bull-bear lines are mechanical, not directional — the same fiscal-dominance backdrop produces opposite calls on Treasuries and the dollar.
MacroSignal Weekly
Hormuz becomes permanent. Fed cracks with record 4 dissents and Powell entrenching as Governor through 2028. Gold targets $6,000 with silver at $92 and Shanghai $10 above Western. The new dividing line: $715B AI capex bubble — productivity supercycle or 1999 redux?
MacroSignal Weekly
Strait of Hormuz crisis fractures every playbook. Oil above $110, dollar surges past 100, gold posts worst week in a year, and analysts split on whether the Fed should hike or cut into a supply shock.
MacroSignal Weekly
Global liquidity peaks as gold consensus hits 11/11 bullish. The jobless recovery thesis emerges, passive flows create hidden market fragility, and analysts position for the great fiscal dominance trade.
MacroSignal Weekly
Markets everywhere crash as Kevin Warsh takes the Fed. Multi-asset selloff, commodity supercycle gains conviction, and the credit cracks keep widening.
MacroSignal Weekly
Inaugural issue: credit stress breaks into the open, gold swings $500 in a day, and the dollar bear thesis gains traction across analysts.