MacroSignal Weekly

Gold Is the Last Unanimous Trade

Gold registers 19 bull / 0 bear / 1 neutral across the room — the strongest single consensus we track, and it strengthened this week. Michael Howell reframes the driver away from US real rates toward PBoC yuan devaluation; Luke Gromen targets $5,000–7,000 via yield curve control; Brent Johnson argues gold can quintuple even with a firm dollar. The reasoning differs, the direction does not.

The Dollar Debate Reopened — Both Ways

This was the week of dollar reversals. Adam Taggart, Brent Johnson, Darius Dale and Demetri Kofinas turned bearish on structural erosion, while Lyn Alden, Raoul Pal and Hugh Hendry flipped bullish on the structural bid and Yen weakness. Net lean is mildly bearish (-0.16 weighted), but the split is now genuine.

AI Capex: Supercycle or Last Innings

The room leans firmly bearish on AI capex (15 bear / 3 bull). Darius Dale assigns a 50% probability to a -50% drawdown, citing tech concentration at 47% of the S&P 500 — above the dot-com peak. Jeff Snider flags circular private-credit financing; Raoul Pal and Joseph Wang hold the opposite view of an AI-driven supercycle.

The Long Bond Won't Behave

Joseph Wang notes the long bond marching to ~5.25% despite benign CPI/PPI — decoupled from domestic data by global yields and term premium. Michael Howell sees a 6% 10-year test on 6–8% nominal GDP. Jim Bianco makes the contrarian case that a Fed rate hike could actually cool the long end.

Michael Howell (via Erik Townsend)

The global liquidity cycle has peaked on its ~65-month periodicity and is rolling over — driven by real-economy "crowding out," not central-bank tightening. This favors gold and commodities over blind beta. Gold's driver is PBoC yuan devaluation, not US real rates. He expects the 10-year to test 6% against 6–8% nominal GDP, and sees oil at $135–200. Bitcoin lags gold under Western-liquidity pressure.

Luke Gromen

The "Washington Consensus" is dead, replaced by Hamiltonian economics and fiscal dominance. The US cannot afford positive real yields, making yield curve control inevitable. He targets gold at $5,000–7,000+, calls long bonds "certificates of confiscation," and estimates -12% to -16% real rates for 3–5 years to bring debt-to-GDP toward 70–80%. Bullish equities nominally, bearish in gold terms.

Darius Dale

Reversed to bullish on near-term equities ("respect the X-axis") while remaining long-term bearish on an AI capex bubble sustained by circular financing. Assigns 50% odds to a -50% crash, citing tech concentration at 47% of the S&P and retail margin debt doubling in three years. Sees scope for substantial Fed easing in 2027 as labor and housing cool.

Jeff Snider

The economy is transitioning from "mini-cycle" into a formal recession — July retail sales fell -0.6%, savings rate near 1940s lows, payrolls revised sharply down. He flags an AI bubble echoing 1999 but tied to opaque private credit ("the new junk bond market"). Bullish gold and Treasuries on flight-to-safety; bearish equities and gasoline demand.

Brent Johnson

The Dollar Milkshake holds: $80–100T+ of offshore dollar debt creates structural demand, making the dollar strong even as it breaks the system. Crucially, gold and the dollar are not enemies — gold quintupled since the GFC while DXY rose 20%. He flipped bearish on the dollar's long-term purchasing power given the fiscal problem, while staying EM-bearish.

Raoul Pal

Frames an Economic Singularity by 2030 where AI runs on crypto rails. Bullish crypto long-term and the USD short-term versus a structurally failing Yen — targeting USD/JPY 200 on domestic capital flight, not rate differentials. Flipped bullish on EM (highest YTD leadership) and reversed toward a Fed that needs to be more data-dependent.

Jim Bianco

Argues the Fed should abandon forward guidance and that a "3% inflation world" (64 months above target) is entrenched. Bearish Treasuries — the 10yr is up ~95bp since cuts began, the market disagreeing with policy. His contrarian call: a Fed "panic" rate hike could paradoxically calm and lower long-end yields.

Danielle DiMartino Booth & Adam Taggart

DiMartino Booth sees credit cracks widening — small-business bankruptcies up 24% YoY, doves "five for five" — favoring a bond rally as growth slows. Taggart frames a "PROSEC" era of resiliency over cost: bullish defense, energy, domestic manufacturing and the Americas; bearish hyperscalers and the long bond (4.5–5% range-bound).

Luke Gromen: Physical gold (80/20 over miners), infrastructure equities, "a lot of cash" pending intervention timing; avoid long bonds.

Michael Howell: Bull call spreads on gold, selective/defensive equities and energy; underweight bonds and Bitcoin near-term.

Brent Johnson: Gold as portfolio foundation, long USD, ag commodities near lows; bearish EM.

Adam Taggart: Equal-weight S&P over cap-weight, PROSEC sectors (defense, energy, domestic manufacturing), 2yr Treasuries (TUA); wary of hyperscalers.

Raoul Pal: Crypto and altcoins in the "Banana Zone," AI application-layer stocks (~10%), long USD vs Yen; assess volatility tolerance.

Darius Dale: Long equities tactically ("respect the X-axis"), positioned for 2027 easing; long-term hedged against a secular bear.

David Rosenberg: Overweight duration at the 10-year point; cool on the 30yr; upgraded Bitcoin to neutral.

Joseph Wang: Likes long bonds fundamentally above 5% but respects momentum against them; long refined energy products and AI equities.